je.st
news
Hurricane COSME Forecast Discussion Number 12
2013-06-26 10:31:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT WED JUN 26 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 260831 TCDEP3 HURRICANE COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013 200 AM PDT WED JUN 26 2013 COSME LIKELY PEAKED WITH AN INTENSITY OF 75 KT AT 0000 AND 0600 UTC BASED ON A BLEND OF VARIOUS SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...AND THE PRESENCE OF AN 18 NMI DIAMETER EYE IN WINDSAT...SSMIS...AND AMSU-B MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY BETWEEN 0100 UTC AND 0430 UTC. OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS SINCE THE 0600 UTC SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.5/77 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...THE CONVECTION ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION HAS ERODED SIGNIFICANTLY AS COSME HAS BEGUN ITS TREK OVER COLDER WATERS. AS A RESULT...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED SLIGHTLY TO 70 KT. AFTER THE MULTIPLE JOGS AND WOBBLES IN THE TRACK OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS...HURRICANE COSME APPEARS TO HAVE SETTLED INTO A NICE SMOOTH MOTION OF 290/12 KT. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MASSIVE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE SITUATED TO ITS NORTH... AND THEN TURN WESTWARD AFTER THAT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE LATEST NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY PACKED AND IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK. COSME IS CURRENTLY PASSING OVER THE 26C SST ISOTHERM AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER COLDER WATER...REACHING SUB-22C SSTS BY 36 HOURS. THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT AND THE ROBUST UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTACT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FACTORS THAT COULD POSSIBLY HELP COSME RETAIN HURRICANE STATUS FOR ANOTHER 6-12 HOURS. BY 18-24 HOURS... HOWEVER...THE MUCH COLDER WATERS AND INCREASING COLD UPWELLING BENEATH THE CYCLONE SHOULD INDUCE RAPID WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE... WITH DEGENERATION INTO A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW BY 48 HOURS... IF NOT SOONER. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS THE DECAY-SHIPS MODEL...WHICH INDICATES DISSIPATION OF THE CYCLONE BY 72 HOURS. THE EXTENSIVE 12-FT SEAS RADII ARE THE RESULT OF LONG-FETCH SOUTHERLY CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW GENERATING LARGE SWELLS...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 18.4N 114.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 19.0N 116.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 19.9N 118.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 20.6N 121.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 28/0600Z 21.1N 124.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 29/0600Z 21.7N 129.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 30/0600Z 21.7N 134.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/0600Z 21.7N 138.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
hurricane
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Latest from this category |
All news |
||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||