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Hurricane CRISTINA Forecast Discussion Number 10
2014-06-12 04:36:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT WED JUN 11 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 120236 TCDEP3 HURRICANE CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 800 PM PDT WED JUN 11 2014 Cristina continues to gain strength. The eye has become more distinct in recent satellite images, and cloud tops surrounding the center have cooled. In addition, the overall cloud pattern appears more symmetric than earlier this afternoon with better organized banding features. Dvorak classifications were 4.5/77 kt from both TAFB and SAB at 0000 UTC. Since that time, the eye has become surrounded by white cloud tops on the Dvorak IR curve, which suggests that Cristina's winds have increased to at least 85 kt. The hurricane still has another day or so to gain additional strength, since the vertical shear is expected to remain quite low while Cristina lies over warm 29 C waters. In 2 to 3 days, the environment is expected to become less favorable as the cyclone begins to move over cooler water and into westerly shear. These hostile conditions should cause weakening, and Cristina is expected to become a remnant low in about 5 days. The NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous one in the short term to account for the observed strengthening trend, but is otherwise unchanged. The eye of the hurricane has been wobbling, but a smooth initial motion estimate is 290/5. A slightly faster west-northwestward to northwestward motion is forecast during the next few days while Cristina moves along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level high pressure system. By the end of the forecast period, the weakening storm is expected to turn back toward the west steered by the low-level flow. The NHC track forecast is nudged to the north of the previous one trending toward the latest GFS and ECMWF consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 16.0N 105.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 16.4N 106.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 13/0000Z 17.1N 108.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 13/1200Z 17.9N 109.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 14/0000Z 18.7N 110.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 15/0000Z 19.6N 112.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 16/0000Z 20.2N 113.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 17/0000Z 20.5N 115.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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