je.st
news
Hurricane CRISTINA Forecast Discussion Number 13
2014-06-12 17:04:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT THU JUN 12 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 121504 TCDEP3 HURRICANE CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 800 AM PDT THU JUN 12 2014 Corrected wording in last paragraph Cristina has gone through an extraordinary, but not unprecedented, phase of rapid intensification during the past 24 hours, with its maximum winds increasing by about 65 kt since this time yesterday. The hurricane has a circular central dense overcast with very cold cloud tops to near -80C. Water vapor images indicate that upper-level outflow is somewhat restricted in the southwestern quadrant but is good elsewhere. Cristina has strengthened so fast that TAFB and SAB satellite estimates are limited to T6.0/115 kt by Dvorak rules. The initial intensity is set at 130 kt, a little below the latest objective ADT estimate of T6.8/135 kt. The intensity trend appears to have leveled off a bit, and no further significant strengthening is expected. However, light vertical wind shear and a deep warm ocean should allow Cristina to maintain major hurricane strength for another 36 hours or so. After that time, gradually increasing vertical shear and cooler sea surface temperatures should induce significant weakening after about 48 hours. The official intensity forecast is fairly close to the consensus ICON and is similar to that of the special advisory. Cristina is located to the south of a mid-level ridge centered over northern Mexico, and the initial motion remains 295/7 kt. The cyclone is expected to maintain a west-northwestward to northwestward heading during the next 4 days due to the ridge, and the track guidance is in fairly good agreement on this scenario. The GFDL model is the primary outlier, taking Cristina farther north after 48 hours. The official forecast sticks with the rest of the guidance, however, and is relatively unchanged from the previous advisory. With Hurricanes Amanda and Cristina reaching category 4 status, this is the first time there have been two category 4 hurricanes through June in the eastern North Pacific basin since the beginning of the satellite era in 1966. Prior to Cristina, the earliest second category 4 hurricane was Hurricane Elida in 1984, which reached that threshold on July 1. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 16.6N 107.1W 130 KT 150 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 17.2N 108.2W 130 KT 150 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 17.9N 109.5W 115 KT 135 MPH 36H 14/0000Z 18.7N 110.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 14/1200Z 19.2N 111.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 15/1200Z 19.7N 113.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 16/1200Z 20.0N 114.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 17/1200Z 20.0N 117.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
hurricane
Category:Transportation and Logistics