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Hurricane CRISTINA Forecast Discussion Number 14
2014-06-12 22:37:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT THU JUN 12 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 122037 TCDEP3 HURRICANE CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 200 PM PDT THU JUN 12 2014 Cristina appeared to peak in intensity earlier this morning around 1200 UTC. Deep convection has become less symmetric since that time, and the eye is somewhat cloud filled in the latest visible images. The initial intensity is lowered to 120 kt for this advisory, which is close to a blend of current intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the objective ADT. Although a UW-CIMSS shear analysis indicates that about 10 kt of west-southwesterly shear is affecting Cristina, it is likely that internal dynamics within the core of the hurricane are also modulating the intensity. Only gradual weakening is forecast during the next 24-36 hours since vertical wind shear is expected to remain light and the ocean is sufficiently warm. After 48 hours, environmental conditions become more hostile, and quicker weakening is anticipated after that time. Given the hurricane's current structure, the statistical models appear too sluggish in showing weakening in the short-term, and the NHC intensity forecast therefore shows faster weakening during the first 36 hours. The initial motion remains 295/7 kt with Cristina located to the south of a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico. The track models are tightly clustered for much of the forecast period, showing Cristina maintaining a northwestward to west-northwestward motion through the next 48 hours. After that time, the weakening cyclone will be steered to the west by lower-level flow. The updated NHC track forecast is moved a little north of the previous forecast during the first 48 hours in response to a general shift in the guidance envelope, but overall the change is quite negligible. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 16.9N 107.8W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 17.6N 108.9W 115 KT 135 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 18.4N 110.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 14/0600Z 19.1N 111.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 14/1800Z 19.5N 112.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 15/1800Z 19.7N 113.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 16/1800Z 19.8N 115.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 17/1800Z 19.5N 119.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg
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