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Hurricane CRISTINA Forecast Discussion Number 16
2014-06-13 10:38:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT FRI JUN 13 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 130838 TCDEP3 HURRICANE CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 200 AM PDT FRI JUN 13 2014 After going through a remarkable rapid intensification yesterday, Cristina has now rapidly weakened at a similar rate. Microwave imagery suggest that the eyewall is about 50 percent open, and only occasional hints of an eye can be seen on conventional satellite data. The initial wind speed is lowered to 90 kt as a blend of the Dvorak estimates. However this value is more uncertain than normal owing to a rather large spread in the satellite intensity estimates from various agencies. Decreasing SSTS, along with increasing shear and dry air aloft, should generally continue to weaken Cristina. Most of the models do suggest a slower weakening rate than what has recently been observed, which seems reasonable since the environment isn't extremely hostile. The NHC intensity forecast is reduced from the previous one, mostly to account for the steep drop in the initial wind speed, and is close to the intensity consensus. Transition into a remnant low seems likely in about 3-4 days when Cristina is surrounded by very dry air and over cool waters. The cyclone is now moving to the northwest at about 7 kt. A northwestward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next day or two while Cristina is steered by a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico. After that time, the weakened storm should turn westward, steered primarily by the low-level flow. The only notable change to the track guidance on this cycle is that Cristina continues the west-northwestward motion for a little longer before taking the westward turn. The NHC track forecast is adjusted slightly to the north beyond 48 hours, following the trend in the latest guidance, but is otherwise virtually unchanged. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 17.7N 109.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 18.3N 110.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 14/0600Z 19.0N 111.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 14/1800Z 19.5N 112.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 15/0600Z 19.8N 112.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 16/0600Z 20.2N 114.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 17/0600Z 20.5N 116.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 18/0600Z 20.5N 118.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Blake
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