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Hurricane CRISTINA Forecast Discussion Number 7
2014-06-11 10:44:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT WED JUN 11 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 110844 TCDEP3 HURRICANE CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 200 AM PDT WED JUN 11 2014 Cristina continues to intensify. The cyclone consists of a small central dense overcast in geostationary satellite imagery with cold-topped convection to -80C in the northern semicircle. There have been faint hints of eye or warm spot during the past several hours, and a 0329 UTC TRMM overpass showed a closed low- to mid- level ring of convection surrounding the center. Satellite classifications from TAFB and SAB supported an intensity of 60 kt at synoptic time. However, the initial intensity estimate is increased to 65 kt, based on UW-CIMSS ADT values now to 4.5/77 kt and the persistence of an eye feature that has warmed slightly and become better defined. The cyclone has been moving south of due west in response to a strong mid-level ridge over northwestern Mexico, but the heading appears to have recently become more westerly. The ridge is forecast to either remain in place or shift slightly eastward during the next few days, which should cause the track of Cristina to gradually bend west-northwestward. The track guidance is in generally good agreement on this scenario, but small differences in the location of the ridge over Mexico lead to slightly different motion headings. The ECMWF maintains the center of the ridge a bit to the west of the GFS and other models, resulting in a solution on the southern side of the guidance envelope. The NHC track forecast is adjusted a hair to the left of the previous one in the direction of the ECMWF, which has continued to correctly forecast a more southern track. The environment in which Cristina is embedded remains ideal for intensification. The cyclone is located underneath a mid- to upper- level ridge axis and over very warm waters. The inner core structure has also become better defined, with the closed ring seen in microwave imagery signaling that rapid intensification is a possibility. The NHC forecast is adjusted upward in the short term based on current trends, and thee is some potential for Cristina to become stronger than forecast. In about 60 hours, Cristina should encounter increasing southwesterly shear associated with an upper-level trough extending southwestward from California coast and should reach markedly cooler waters in about 4 days. This should result in a pronounced weakening trend at the end of the forecast period and perhaps a quick demise. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the multi-model consensus through 72 hours and near the LGEM after that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 15.2N 104.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 15.3N 105.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 12/0600Z 15.7N 106.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 12/1800Z 16.4N 108.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 13/0600Z 17.2N 109.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 14/0600Z 18.6N 111.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 15/0600Z 19.2N 113.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 16/0600Z 19.6N 114.7W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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