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Hurricane DALILA Forecast Discussion Number 13
2013-07-02 22:32:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT TUE JUL 02 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 022032 TCDEP4 HURRICANE DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 200 PM PDT TUE JUL 02 2013 A COUPLE OF MICROWAVE IMAGES...RECEIVED SHORTLY AFTER THE RELEASE OF THE 1500 UTC ADVISORY...SHOWED THAT THE INNER-CORE STRUCTURE OF DALILA BECAME SUBSTANTIALLY BETTER DEFINED DURING THE MORNING HOURS. IN PARTICULAR...1335 UTC WINDSAT MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWED THAT THAT AN EYE HAD DEVELOPED. THAT PASS ALSO INDICATED THAT THE CENTER OF DALILA WAS NORTH OF THE PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED POSITION. A RAGGED EYE-LIKE FEATURE IS STILL PRESENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY AND THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME FAIRLY SYMMETRIC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 65 KT...BASED ON A BLEND OF MICROWAVE-ADJUSTED OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. THERE HAS BEEN A LARGE UPWARD SHIFT IN THE STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD...ALTHOUGH IT NOW LIES ON THE LOWER END OF THE GUIDANCE RANGE. DALILA IS STILL FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 120 HOURS AS IT MOVES INTO A DRIER ENVIRONMENT AND OVER COOLER WATERS. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER HAS BEEN EASIER TO LOCATE...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS STILL MOVING VERY SLOWLY AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS RATHER UNCERTAIN. IN THE SHORT RANGE...A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF DALILA IS STILL EXPECTED TO IMPART A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE REMAINS A VERY LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AFTER THAT...AND THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE NOT COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. THE GFS STILL SHOWS A GENERALLY WESTWARD-MOVING STRONG CYCLONE...WHILE THE ECMWF FORECASTS A SOUTHWARD-MOVING WEAK LOW. GIVEN THE CURRENT STATE OF DALILA...MORE CREDENCE IS BEING GIVEN TO THE FORMER SCENARIO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 18.4N 107.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 18.3N 107.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 18.0N 108.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 17.7N 108.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 17.5N 109.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 05/1800Z 17.5N 111.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 06/1800Z 18.0N 113.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 07/1800Z 18.5N 116.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER PASCH/ZELINSKY
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