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Hurricane DALILA Forecast Discussion Number 16
2013-07-03 16:42:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT WED JUL 03 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 031442 TCDEP4 HURRICANE DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 800 AM PDT WED JUL 03 2013 DALILA APPEARS TO HAVE UNDERGONE ANOTHER STRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATION...AND A 0935 UTC MICROWAVE IMAGE FROM TRMM INDICATED THAT THE INNER-CORE HAD BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED. A CONSENSUS OF OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 1200 UTC IS ABOUT 70 KT...HOWEVER THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED A LITTLE SINCE THEN...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD AT 65 KT. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH...AND SUGGESTS THAT DALILA WILL REMAIN NEAR HURRICANE INTENSITY FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT...STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED WHILE DALILA MOVES INTO AN AREA OF COLDER WATER AND STRONGER SHEAR...AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS DIAGNOSTIC OUTPUT. DALILA IS STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE CENTER OF DALILA REMAINS DIFFICULT TO FIND...HOWEVER EXTRAPOLATING THE POSITION OF THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE AS INDICATED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED TRMM PASS YIELDS AN ESTIMATED MOTION OF 240/3. DALILA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO...BEFORE TURNING TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY WEST-NORTHWEST WHILE THE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO ITS NORTH PROPAGATES EASTWARD. THE DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE STILL VARIES GREATLY ON HOW QUICKLY DALILA WILL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY NEAR THAT OF THE GFS...WHICH HAS BEEN A GOOD PERFORMER FOR THIS STORM THUS FAR. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 17.8N 108.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 17.6N 108.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 17.2N 109.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 17.1N 110.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 05/1200Z 17.1N 111.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 06/1200Z 17.5N 114.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 07/1200Z 18.5N 116.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 08/1200Z 19.0N 119.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER PASCH/ZELINSKY
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