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Hurricane DARBY Forecast Discussion Number 10
2016-07-14 04:37:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT WED JUL 13 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 140237 TCDEP5 HURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052016 900 PM MDT WED JUL 13 2016 Darby has developed a large CDO pattern and a 2314Z SSMI/S microwave pass indicated a 15-20 nmi diameter eye embedded in the center of the central dense overcast. Subjective intensity estimates are a consensus T4.0/65 kt from TAFB and SAB, and the latest UW-CIMSS ADT and AMSU estimates were T4.4/75 kt and 72 kt, respectively. The advisory intensity of 70 kt is based on an average of these values. The initial motion estimate is 280/10 kt. The expansive deep-layer ridge to the north of Darby is forecast by the global models to remain entrenched across the eastern and central Pacific for the next several days, which should act to keep Darby moving in a general westerly direction throughout the 5-day forecast period. Other than some differences in forward speed, there remains very little cross-track difference noted among the more reliable models. The new official track forecast is essentially just an extension of the previous advisory track, and lies close to a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF model solutions. Darby is expected to encounter the most favorable combination of atmospheric and oceanic conditions during the next 24 hours or so, and steady intensification is forecast as a result during that time. By 36-48 h, Darby will be moving across cooler SSTs near 26 deg C and into a drier airmass, so leveling off of the intensity is expected. Steady weakening is forecast to begin after that time as the hurricane moves over 25-26 deg C SSTs. However, the weakening rate is expected to be a little slower than normal due to low vertical wind shear conditions that both the GFS and ECMWF models are forecasting to affect Darby between 72-120 h. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast, and closely follows the SHIPS intensity forecast guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 15.6N 114.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 15.9N 116.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 16.3N 119.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 16.7N 121.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 17.0N 123.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 17/0000Z 17.5N 127.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 18/0000Z 18.1N 131.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 19/0000Z 18.9N 136.4W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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