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Hurricane DARBY Forecast Discussion Number 12
2016-07-14 16:38:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT THU JUL 14 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 141438 TCDEP5 HURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052016 800 AM PDT THU JUL 14 2016 Darby still appears to be feeling the effects of 10-15 kt of northeasterly shear. Recent microwave images continue to show a mid-level eye, but the deep convection has an asymmetric structure, primarily focused to the south and southwest of the center. Subjective and objective Dvorak estimates have not changed during the past six hours, and the initial intensity is therefore held at 70 kt. Although Darby is moving over a relative cool spot in the ocean, SSTs are still plenty warm to support strengthening for the next 36 hours. A limiting factor may be continued vertical shear, which does not seem to have decreased as the models had been indicating. The SHIPS guidance now shows the shear staying up between 10-15 kt during the next 24 hours, so only a little more strengthening is shown in the official forecast. The new NHC forecast shows a slightly lower peak intensity, and it should be noted that this forecast is still near the high end of the guidance. Much colder SSTs, on the order of 24-25 degrees Celsius, should contribute to weakening beyond 48 hours. The initial motion remains westward, or 280/11 kt. A well- established ridge to the north of Darby should continue steering the cyclone westward during the next five days. With the exception of the GFDL and HWRF models, which are located along the northern edge of the guidance envelope, the track models are tightly clustered and are showing more agreement than yesterday. The NHC forecast is south of the TVCE model consensus, and is very close to the previous official forecast and an average of the GFS and ECMWF models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 15.9N 116.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 16.3N 118.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 16.7N 121.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 17.0N 123.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 17.2N 125.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 17/1200Z 17.4N 128.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 18/1200Z 17.8N 132.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 19/1200Z 18.5N 137.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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