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Hurricane DARBY Forecast Discussion Number 13
2016-07-14 22:44:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT THU JUL 14 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 142043 TCDEP5 HURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052016 200 PM PDT THU JUL 14 2016 Darby is a little better organized this afternoon. Visible satellite imagery shows a well-defined convective band wrapping almost 1.5 times around the center, which has resulted in the development of a banding-type eye. Subjective and objective Dvorak estimates from the various agencies have remained steady or increased slightly since this morning; therefore the initial intensity is raised to 75 kt. Darby may still have to contend with some northeasterly shear for another 12-24 hours, but the shear then decreases after that time. On the other hand, oceanic heat content values ahead of the hurricane fall off precipitously in about 12 hours. Considering these competing factors, some gradual strengthening is expected during the next day or so, followed by slow weakening until the end of the forecast period due to cooler SSTs. The updated NHC intensity forecast is near the SHIPS and Florida State Superensemble, which are at the top end of the intensity guidance. Darby continues moving westward, or 280/12 kt. Strong mid-level ridging to the north of the hurricane is expected to persist for much of the forecast period, keeping Darby on a westward or perhaps west-northwestward path through day 5. The track guidance remains tightly clustered, as it has been for the past couple of days, although the overall guidance envelope shifted northward on this cycle, especially through day 3. Therefore, the official NHC track forecast has been adjusted northward, but it is near the southern edge of the guidance suite close to the GFS, GFS ensemble mean, and UKMET. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 15.9N 118.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 16.3N 119.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 16.8N 121.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 17.2N 123.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 17.5N 125.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 17/1800Z 17.8N 129.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 18/1800Z 18.2N 134.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 19/1800Z 18.5N 138.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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