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Hurricane DARBY Forecast Discussion Number 14
2016-07-15 04:46:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT THU JUL 14 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 150246 TCDEP5 HURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052016 800 PM PDT THU JUL 14 2016 Darby has become a little better organized during the past 6 hours with a ragged 30-nmi-diameter eye having appeared within the central dense overcast. Upper-level outflow has continued to expand in all quadrants. The initial intensity has been increased to 80 kt based on a blend of consensus subjective intensity estimates of T4.5/77 kt from TAFB and SAB, and UW-CIMSS objective intensity estimates of 83 kt and 85 kt from AMSU and ADT, respectively. Darby's initial motion estimate is 280/11 kt after smoothing through some wobbles in the track. Otherwise, there is no significant change to previous track or philosophy. The latest model guidance remains in excellent agreement on Darby moving west-northwestward to westward for the next 48 hours, followed by a turn to a more due west motion after that as the ridge to the north of the hurricane builds slightly southward and westward. The new NHC track forecast is basically just an extension of the previous advisory track, and remains near the southern edge of the guidance suite, following the consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models. Although the vertical wind shear is expected to remain 10 kt or less throughout the 5-day forecast period, SSTs decreasing below 27C and the large eye of Darby argue against any significant strengthening during the next day or so. After that, SSTs decreasing to less than 26C should induce gradual weakening by 36 h and beyond. However, the aforementioned weak wind shear conditions should act to prevent a more typical rapid weakening trend from occurring. This is similar to the slower-than-normal weakening trend noted with Tropical Storm Celia during the past couple of days while that cyclone has been moving through a similar environment of low shear and cool waters near 25C. The official NHC intensity forecast is above the IVCN intensity consensus model, and closely follows a blend of the SHIPS and LGEM models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 16.0N 119.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 16.4N 120.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 16.9N 122.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 17.4N 124.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 17.6N 126.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 18/0000Z 18.1N 130.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 19/0000Z 18.3N 135.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 20/0000Z 18.6N 140.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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