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Hurricane DARBY Forecast Discussion Number 16
2016-07-15 16:52:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT FRI JUL 15 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 151452 TCDEP5 HURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052016 800 AM PDT FRI JUL 15 2016 Darby's eye became a little better defined earlier this morning, with an elongated tail of convection developing within the eastern portion of the circulation. Dvorak final-T numbers are now 4.5/77 kt from TAFB, 5.0/90 kt from SAB, and 5.1/92 kt from the UW-CIMSS ADT, so the initial intensity is raised to 85 kt on this advisory. The eye appears to have opened up a bit on the latest satellite pictures, so it's possible that Darby may have reached its peak intensity. The hurricane is now moving over sea surface temperatures a little less than 27C, and the ocean beneath the hurricane is expected to be colder than 26C within the next 24-36 hours. Since vertical shear continues to gradually decrease, Darby is forecast to maintain its intensity or only gradually weaken during the next day or two. After 48 hours, more marked weakening is anticipated due to SSTs getting as cold as 24-25C. No changes to the NHC intensity forecast, which is essentially a blend of the SHIPS model and Florida State Superensemble early and the IVCN intensity consensus late, were required from the previous advisory. Darby appears to have turned west-northwestward and slowed down, and the initial motion estimate is 285/8 kt. An amplifying mid- to upper-level trough along the west coast of the United States is expected to weaken the subtropical ridge during the next day or two. This should allow the hurricane to continue moving west-northwestward for the next 36 hours, but thereafter a westward turn is anticipated when a weaker Darby comes under the influence of lower-level steering winds. There continues to be high confidence in Darby's future path due to a tightly packed model suite, and the updated NHC track forecast is shifted slightly northward only during the first 36 hours to account for the recent west-northwestward turn. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 16.5N 120.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 17.0N 121.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 17.5N 123.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 17.9N 125.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 18.1N 127.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 18/1200Z 18.6N 131.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 19/1200Z 19.0N 136.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 20/1200Z 19.0N 141.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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