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Hurricane DARBY Forecast Discussion Number 19
2016-07-16 10:37:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SAT JUL 16 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 160837 TCDEP5 HURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052016 200 AM PDT SAT JUL 16 2016 Darby appears to be maintaining its strength. Satellite images indicate that the eye of the hurricane has become a bit more distinct and circular than it was several hours ago. Although the cloud tops have warmed a bit in the eyewall, the convective pattern is quite symmetric. A blend of the latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB, and automated values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin support holding the initial intensity at 90 kt. Although the wind shear is expected to remain light during the next several days, the oceanic conditions will soon become unfavorable for strengthening. Sea surface temperatures beneath the hurricane are expected to fall below 26 deg C in about 12 hours, and Darby is headed for even cooler waters after that. The cool waters combined with a progressively drier air mass should induce a gradual weakening trend beginning later today and continuing during the next several days. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one and is not too different from the intensity model consensus. Darby has been wobbling around during the past 12-18 hours, but smoothing through these positions yields an initial motion estimate of 295/9 kt. A gradual turn toward the west is expected during the next several days as a mid-level ridge builds to the north of the tropical cyclone. The model guidance is in fair agreement in the future track of Darby, and the NHC forecast lies close to the various consensus aids. An ASCAT pass from a few hours ago was helpful in estimating the size of the wind field of Darby. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 17.6N 123.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 18.0N 124.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 18.4N 126.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 18.8N 127.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 18/0600Z 19.1N 129.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 19/0600Z 19.8N 134.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 20/0600Z 20.1N 138.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 21/0600Z 19.5N 144.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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