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Hurricane DARBY Forecast Discussion Number 21
2016-07-16 22:33:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SAT JUL 16 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 162033 TCDEP5 HURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052016 200 PM PDT SAT JUL 16 2016 Darby appears to have been strengthening during the day despite moving over increasingly cooler waters. The deep convection is becoming more symmetric, the eye has been warming intermittently, and the hurricane appears to be losing some of its outer banding. In fact, Darby has developed a marginal annular structure. Dvorak estimates have generally risen since this morning, and the initial intensity is raised to 100 kt. This makes Darby the second major hurricane of the eastern North Pacific season. Sea surface temperatures beneath Darby are currently around 25.5C and will continue to decrease over the next few days. But, given that vertical shear is expected to remain low through at least day 3, and the hurricane's marginal annular structure, Darby is likely to remain relatively steady in intensity or only gradually weaken in the short-term. Faster weakening is still expected later in the forecast period due to the added effect of increasing shear. Almost every reliable intensity model shows Darby weakening fast during the next day or two. However, the HWRF model is a notable outlier and keeps Darby as a hurricane at least through day 3. The updated NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous forecast during the first 36 hours and is near the top end of the main pack of intensity models. The initial motion remains 285/9 kt. The subtropical ridge to the north of Darby is weakening, but it should stay strong enough to steer the hurricane west-northwestward or westward through the entire forecast period. The new run of the ECMWF has sped up compared to the other track models, but otherwise there is very little spread in the guidance envelope. The updated NHC track forecast is closest to an average of the GFS and ECMWF and is very close to the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 18.0N 124.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 18.3N 126.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 17/1800Z 18.5N 128.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 18/0600Z 18.8N 130.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 18/1800Z 19.0N 132.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 19/1800Z 19.7N 136.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 20/1800Z 19.7N 141.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 21/1800Z 18.7N 146.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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