je.st
news
Hurricane DARBY Forecast Discussion Number 24
2016-07-17 16:36:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SUN JUL 17 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 171436 TCDEP5 HURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052016 800 AM PDT SUN JUL 17 2016 Darby's satellite presentation has changed very little since the last advisory. The hurricane still has a well-defined 10 n mi wide eye and a symmetric central dense overcast with cloud tops as cold as -68C. The initial intensity is held at 85 kt based on a blend of the latest Dvorak Current Intensity numbers, which are 5.0/90 kt from TAFB and SAB and 4.7/82 kt from the UW-CIMSS ADT. A narrow subtropical ridge lies to the north of the hurricane along 30N, which is steering Darby westward, or 280/8 kt. A westward or west-northwestward motion is expected during the next four days due to the position and strength of the ridge, and the track guidance is in excellent agreement during this period. By day 5, a weaker Darby is forecast to turn west-southwestward due to strong low-level ridging north of the Hawaiian Islands. There is a little more spread among the track models at the end of the forecast period, but the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET are all south of the TVCE multi-model consensus. The updated forecast therefore remains south of TVCE and is a little faster than the previous forecast on day 5. Darby is now over SSTs between 24 and 25C and is expected to move over even colder waters in 12-24 hours. Therefore, fairly quick weakening is forecast in the short term, and Darby is likely to lose hurricane strength on Monday. SSTs are actually expected to begin increasing again after 24 hours, which could slow the rate of weakening through the end of the forecast period. However, increasing vertical shear and a drier mid-level air mass by days 4 and 5 will likely prevent significant re-intensification over the warmer waters to the southeast of Hawaii. The NHC intensity forecast is near the SHIPS model through day 3 and then a little higher than SHIPS on days 4 and 5, closer to the ICON intensity consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 18.3N 127.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 18.4N 128.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 18/1200Z 18.8N 130.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 19/0000Z 19.3N 133.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 19/1200Z 19.7N 135.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 20/1200Z 20.1N 140.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 21/1200Z 19.5N 145.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 22/1200Z 18.5N 150.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
hurricane
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Latest from this category |
All news |
||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||