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Hurricane DARBY Forecast Discussion Number 26
2016-07-18 04:36:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SUN JUL 17 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 180236 TCDEP5 HURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052016 800 PM PDT SUN JUL 17 2016 Darby has not weakened since the last advisory; in fact the hurricane looks a little more impressive than it did earlier today. Although central convection has not strengthened appreciably, the CDO has become more symmetric and the eye a little more distinct. The current intensity estimate is held at 80 kt which is close to a consensus of Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB, along with ADT estimates from UW-CIMSS. Darby is over SSTs near 24 deg C and will be moving over slightly cooler waters overnight. After that, the cyclone should traverse SSTs near 25 deg C through 48 hours. Gradual weakening is predicted due to these somewhat cool waters, and Darby should lose hurricane status in about 24 hours with additional weakening thereafter. In 72 hours or so, the ocean under Darby will warm slightly to 25-26 deg C but by that time the vertical shear, which had been low, is forecast to increase and this should prevent restrenghtening in the latter part of the forecast period. The official intensity forecast is close to the latest model consensus. Darby continues on a westward track and the initial motion estimate remains 275/8 kt. There is no reason to change the track forecast from the previous advisory package. A narrow east-west oriented mid-level ridge is expected to be maintained to the north of Darby for the next several days. Late in the period, a mid-level high builds to the northwest of the tropical cyclone which should cause a slightly south of west motion. The official forecast lies a little south of the dynamical model consensus and is a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF predictions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 18.4N 129.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 18.6N 130.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 19.0N 133.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 19/1200Z 19.4N 135.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 20/0000Z 19.7N 137.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 21/0000Z 19.5N 142.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 22/0000Z 18.7N 147.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 23/0000Z 18.0N 151.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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