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Hurricane DARBY Forecast Discussion Number 28
2016-07-18 16:43:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT MON JUL 18 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 181443 TCDEP5 HURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052016 800 AM PDT MON JUL 18 2016 Deep convection associated with Darby continues to diminish this morning with a couple of thin, fragmented curved bands located just to the southwest of the center of circulation. The initial intensity is, therefore, lowered to 65 kt and agrees with a blend of the subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates. The cyclone is currently moving over SSTs near 24C, but will soon be traversing slightly warmer water during the next day or two. Consequently, there could be some convective banding redevelopment which could temporarily curtail weakening. After that time, the global models all indicate an increase in westerly shear which is expected to influence further weakening through the end of the period. The NHC intensity forecast reflects gradual weakening and is slightly above the Decay SHIPS and LGEM models. The initial motion estimate is 280/9 kt, to the south of a narrow mid-tropospheric ridge extending along 30N. A generally westward to west-northwestward motion with a slight increase in forward speed is forecast during the next 72 hours. Through the remaining portion of the forecast period, the aforementioned ridge is expected to briefly strengthen, causing the cyclone to move just a bit south of due west. The official forecast is again shifted a little northward and is located between the multi-model consensus and a blend of the GFS and ECMWF ensemble mean guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 18.7N 131.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 19.1N 132.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 19.7N 135.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 20.1N 137.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 20.2N 139.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 21/1200Z 19.6N 144.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 22/1200Z 18.7N 149.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 23/1200Z 18.8N 152.1W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
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