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Hurricane DARBY Forecast Discussion Number 30
2016-07-19 04:31:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT MON JUL 18 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 190231 TCDEP5 HURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052016 800 PM PDT MON JUL 18 2016 Darby still appears as a well-organized tropical cyclone on geostationary imagery, with a symmetric CDO and occasional eye showing up on enhanced infrared imagery. Microwave imagery, however, shows that the system has a slight northward tilt with height with the mid-level center located a few tenths of a degree north of the low-level center. Dvorak classifications from SAB and TAFB still support hurricane strength, so the official intensity estimate remains at 65 kt. Darby will be moving over marginal SSTs and into drier air with increasing shear during the next several days. Therefore, the cyclone is forecast to gradually weaken during the forecast period. The official forecast is a blend of the latest SHIPS and LGEM model output through 72 hours and is a little above that guidance at days 4 and 5. Based on the microwave images, the center is positioned slightly south of the fixes from GOES imagery, and the resulting motion estimate is 280/11 kt. The track forecast reasoning is about the same as in the previous advisory. Darby should continue on a generally westward heading to the south of a zonally-oriented mid-level subtropical ridge for the next couple of days. Later in the period, the cyclone should slow its forward speed as it nears a weakness in the ridge. The official track forecast lies roughly in the middle of the dynamical guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 19.1N 133.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 19.6N 134.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 20.0N 136.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 20/1200Z 20.1N 139.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 21/0000Z 19.9N 141.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 22/0000Z 19.5N 145.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 23/0000Z 19.0N 150.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 24/0000Z 20.0N 152.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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