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Hurricane DARBY Forecast Discussion Number 31
2016-07-19 10:34:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT TUE JUL 19 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 190834 TCDEP5 HURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052016 200 AM PDT TUE JUL 19 2016 Although deep convection has been decreasing since the previous advisory, Darby still has a well-defined and tight circulation. The initial intensity is held at 65 kt, in agreement with the Dvorak CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB, but the automated values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin suggest that this estimate could be a little generous. Microwave data indicate that the low-level center of Darby is located to the south of the eye feature seen in infrared satellite images, which is likely the result of southerly shear. Using the microwave fixes, the initial motion estimate is 285/11 kt. A continued west-northwestward motion is expected today, followed by a motion slightly south of due west on Wednesday while Darby is steered by a narrow mid-level ridge to its north. By the end of the forecast period, a turn to the northwest is predicted when Darby approaches a trough to the north of the Hawaiian Islands. The new NHC track forecast is slightly faster than the previous one to come in line with latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF models. Darby is expected to remain over cool water for the next few days, before it tracks over SSTs around 26 deg C to the east of the Hawaiian Islands. However, the system will also be moving into an environment of increasing southwesterly shear by the time it reaches the warmer water. Therefore, gradual weakening is predicted through the period. This forecast is the same as the previous one and is in best agreement with the LGEM guidance. An ASCAT-B pass from around 0600 UTC was helpful in estimating the size of Darby's wind field. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 19.4N 134.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 19.8N 136.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 20/0600Z 20.0N 138.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 20/1800Z 20.0N 140.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 21/0600Z 19.8N 142.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 22/0600Z 19.3N 147.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 23/0600Z 19.4N 150.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 24/0600Z 20.5N 153.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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