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Hurricane Dorian Forecast Discussion Number 58
2019-09-07 19:35:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM AST Sat Sep 07 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 071735 TCDAT5 Hurricane Dorian Special Discussion Number 58 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 200 PM AST Sat Sep 07 2019 This special advisory is being issued instead of the normal intermediate advisory to update the intensity and wind radii of Dorian. A recent ASCAT-B overpass shows a large area of hurricane- force winds southwest and south of the center of Dorian, with many vectors of 80 kt or more. This area of wind is likely due to baroclinic effects during the ongoing extratropical transition. The initial intensity is being increased to 85 kt and the 12-h intensity to 75 kt, after which the forecast intensities are the same as in the previous advisory. Some changes were also made to the initial and 12-h wind radii based on the scatterometer data. There is no change to the forecast track from the previous advisory. Key Messages: 1. Regardless of whether it is a hurricane or a post-tropical cyclone, Dorian is expected to have a significant impact in portions of eastern Canada beginning during the next several hours. Dangerous storm surge impacts are likely in portions of the Gulf of St. Lawrence, southwestern Newfoundland and eastern Nova Scotia. Hurricane-force winds are also likely in Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island and Newfoundland later today and tonight. Refer to information from the Canadian Hurricane Centre for more information on these hazards. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1800Z 42.8N 64.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 45.1N 63.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 24H 08/1200Z 48.9N 59.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 09/0000Z 51.7N 54.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 09/1200Z 54.2N 47.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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