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Hurricane Dorian Wind Speed Probabilities Number 53
2019-09-06 16:56:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 061456 PWSAT5 HURRICANE DORIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 53 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 1500 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 29(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 51(57) 2(59) X(59) X(59) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) 14(14) 70(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) 36(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) 74(74) 17(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) 18(18) 30(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) 45(45) 40(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 28(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) 55(55) 3(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HALIFAX NS 34 X 1( 1) 95(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) 68(68) 5(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) HALIFAX NS 64 X X( X) 23(23) 5(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) YARMOUTH NS 34 X 13(13) 74(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) 46(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) 53(53) 10(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) MONCTON NB 50 X X( X) 11(11) 5(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) MONCTON NB 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ST JOHN NB 34 X 2( 2) 45(47) 3(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) EASTPORT ME 34 X 3( 3) 25(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X 4( 4) 9(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) AUGUSTA ME 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PORTLAND ME 34 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CONCORD NH 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) WORCESTER MA 34 1 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BOSTON MA 34 1 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HYANNIS MA 34 4 27(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) HYANNIS MA 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 4 48(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) NANTUCKET MA 50 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PROVIDENCE RI 34 2 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW HAVEN CT 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HARTFORD CT 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW LONDON CT 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MONTAUK POINT 34 4 10(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) ISLIP NY 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEWARK NJ 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) TRENTON NJ 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NWS EARLE NJ 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ALLENTOWN PA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PHILADELPHIA 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ATLANTIC CITY 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BALTIMORE MD 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DOVER DE 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 8 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) OCEAN CITY MD 34 16 2(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) PAX RIVER NAS 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WALLOPS CDA 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) RICHMOND VA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NORFOLK VA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) OCEANA NAS VA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ELIZABETH CTY 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CAPE HATTERAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CAPE HATTERAS 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CAPE HATTERAS 64 63 X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) CHERRY PT NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW RIVER NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW RIVER NC 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MOREHEAD CITY 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MOREHEAD CITY 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SURF CITY NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BALD HEAD ISL 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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