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Hurricane EDOUARD Forecast Discussion Number 16
2014-09-15 10:55:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST MON SEP 15 2014 000 WTNT41 KNHC 150854 TCDAT1 HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 500 AM AST MON SEP 15 2014 Data from a NASA Global Hawk mission indicate that Edouard has strengthened since yesterday's NOAA P-3 flight. A dropsonde released in the eyewall measured a surface pressure of 969 mb at 0424 UTC, and based on pressure-wind relationships, the corresponding intensity would normally be near the threshold for a major hurricane. This is supported by a 95-100 kt estimate from the UW-CIMSS ADT. On the other hand, low-level wind data from the dropsondes, as well as Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, yield an intensity estimate between 75-80 kt. As a compromise between the data, the intensity is raised to 90 kt on this advisory. Environmental conditions should support some additional intensification during the next couple of days. Modest southeasterly shear could affect Edouard for the next day or so, but the shear is expected to diminish by 36-48 hours. In addition, the hurricane is forecast to remain over warm water for another 2-3 days, and the updated NHC intensity forecast shows Edouard reaching major hurricane status between 24-48 hours. After that time, the cyclone will be moving over much colder water, and a fast weakening trend is expected by day 3. Edouard is forecast to be over 22C water by days 4 and 5, which is likely to cause the system to lose its deep convection and become post-tropical. At this point, it appears that Edouard will remain separate from any frontal zones over the north Atlantic and not become extratropical during the forecast period. The initial motion remains 305/13 kt. Edouard is expected to turn northward around a mid-tropospheric high located to its east and then northeastward in 2-3 days when it becomes embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. The track guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, and there is very little spread among the various models. The new NHC track forecast is a little faster than the previous one and is nudged in the direction of the multi-model consensus TVCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 26.9N 54.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 27.9N 55.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 29.6N 57.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 31.6N 57.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 34.1N 55.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 18/0600Z 39.1N 48.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 19/0600Z 41.0N 40.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 20/0600Z 40.5N 35.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Berg
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