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Hurricane ERICK Forecast Discussion Number 12
2013-07-07 10:35:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SUN JUL 07 2013 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 070835 TCDEP5 HURRICANE ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 200 AM PDT SUN JUL 07 2013 THE CLOUD PATTERN OF ERICK HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH A SMALL CDO ACCOMPANIED BY SOME CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS KEPT AT 70 KT...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. ALTHOUGH THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS LIKELY TO REMAIN LOW OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...ERICK WILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS SO STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL LGEM GUIDANCE AND THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS. BY 72 H...ERICK WILL BE OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF NEAR 20 DEG C...SO THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE REDUCED TO A REMNANT LOW AROUND THAT TIME. BLENDING OF VARIOUS CENTER FIXES YIELDS AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 310/9. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE PROGNOSTIC TRACK FORECAST REASONING. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. SHOULD INDUCE A NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST- NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. THIS IS ALSO QUITE SIMILAR TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT NORTH OF THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF PREDICTIONS. BASED ON THE CURRENT LOCATION OF ERICK AND THE FORECAST...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED EAST OF MANZANILLO. ALSO...SINCE IT IS NOW UNLIKELY THAT THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL MOVE OVER THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO...THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES IS ALSO DISCONTINUED. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 19.2N 106.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 20.1N 107.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 21.2N 109.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 22.3N 110.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 23.3N 112.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 10/0600Z 24.8N 116.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 11/0600Z 25.0N 119.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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