je.st
news
Hurricane Elida Forecast Discussion Number 10
2020-08-11 10:44:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Aug 11 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 110844 TCDEP4 Hurricane Elida Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020 300 AM MDT Tue Aug 11 2020 Elida's convective pattern has become significantly better organized since the 0600Z T4.5/77-kt Dvorak satellite classifications from TAFB and SAB. A 10-nmi-diameter eye has become embedded within a white ring (cloud tops colder than -70C), while the upper-level outflow has expanded and become more symmetrical. In addition, earlier WindSat microwave satellite data indicated that Elida possessed a 10-nmi-wide low-level eye. Based on these data and the recent improvement in Elida's convective and eye structure, the intensity has been increased to a conservative 80 kt. Elida's motion continues to be west-northwestward or 300/12 kt. So much for yesterday's forecast calling for the hurricane to begin turning more westward by this time. Elida has maintained a motion of 300 degrees for the past 48 h or so, and there doesn't appear to be any significant steering feature to change that to a westward course over the next few days. In fact, some of the global models actually turn Elida northward into a mid-level ridge after 48 hours. For now, however, the official forecast track keeps the hurricane moving generally west-northwestward to northwestward, accompanied by a gradual decrease in forward speed, throughout the forecast period. The new track forecast lies between the previous advisory track to the south and the consensus models to the north. Elida is likely close to reaching its peak intensity, although some additional slight strengthening is still possible this morning before the hurricane starts moving over sub-26 deg C sea-surface temperatures (SST) in about 12 h. Thereafter, SSTs steadily decrease along the path of the cyclone, dropping to below 24C by 36 hours and to near 22C by 72 hours. Thus, steady weakening is forecast after 12 hours with Elida becoming a remnant low by 48 h, followed by continued weakening until the cyclone dissipates in 96-120 hours. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to both the previous advisory and the latest NOAA-HCCA and IVCN consensus intensity models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 20.7N 113.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 21.5N 114.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 12/0600Z 22.4N 117.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 12/1800Z 23.4N 119.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 13/0600Z 24.1N 120.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 13/1800Z 25.0N 121.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/0600Z 25.8N 122.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/0600Z 27.7N 124.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
hurricane
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Latest from this category |
All news |
||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||