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Hurricane Elida Forecast Discussion Number 12
2020-08-11 22:35:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 11 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 112035 TCDEP4 Hurricane Elida Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 11 2020 Elida has not changed significantly in organization since the last advisory, as the storm continues to have a small cloud-filled eye inside a symmetric central dense overcast. Various objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates are slightly lower than the previous advisory, but they have not decreased enough to justify lowering the initial intensity yet. The initial motion is west-northwestward or 300/13 kt. The track guidance is in good agreement than Elida should move west- northwestward for the next 36 h or so. After that, the guidance is in better agreement that Elida should turn northwestward with a decrease in forward speed due to interaction with an upper-level low off of the coast of California. There is little change to the forecast track, which lies near the various consensus models, from the previous advisory. Elida is moving toward colder sea surface temperatures, with the center forecast to be over 23C water in 24 h and 22C in 48 h. This should lead to rapid weakening beginning in the next 6-12 h, with the global models forecasting the system to weaken to a trough by 72 h. The new intensity forecast follows the trend of the guidance and calls for Elida to drop below hurricane strength in just over 24 h, degenerate to a remnant low by 48 h, and dissipate by 72 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 22.1N 115.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 22.7N 117.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 12/1800Z 23.6N 119.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 13/0600Z 24.6N 120.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 13/1800Z 25.5N 121.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 14/0600Z 26.7N 122.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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