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Hurricane Elida Forecast Discussion Number 13
2020-08-12 04:36:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 11 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 120236 TCDEP4 Hurricane Elida Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 11 2020 Recent infrared satellite imagery shows that the cloud tops associated with the tropical cyclone have gradually warmed, especially over the southwestern portion of the circulation. A timely 2357 UTC SSMIS microwave overpass indicated that the southern portion of the eye has eroded and that the low-level center is located a little south of recent position estimates using visible satellite imagery. The latest subjective and objective Dvorak satellite estimates range from about 60-90 kt. The advisory intensity has been set at 75 kt, which is in best agreement with the latest UW/CIMSS SATCON estimate, and is a blend of the of the latest Dvorak CI numbers from TAFB and SAB. The cyclone has already crossed the 26C isotherm and is headed toward significantly cooler waters. In addition, the vertical wind shear is predicted to increase slightly over the next 12-24 hours. These negative environmental factors should lead to rapid weakening over the next 24 to 36 hours. Elida is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm on Wednesday, and it should degenerate into a post-tropical cyclone on Thursday when it loses its deep convection. The new NHC intensity forecast essentially follows the trend of the previous advisory, and is in good agreement with the various consensus aids. Elida continues moving west-northwestward at about 13 kt. The cyclone should remain on this general heading through Wednesday as it moves around the southwestern portion of a mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern United States. After that time, a trough located well west of southern California is expected to weaken the western portion of the ridge, causing Elida to slow down and turn northwestward. The dynamical model guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, and no significant change to the previous forecast was required. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 22.5N 116.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 23.2N 118.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 13/0000Z 24.1N 119.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 13/1200Z 25.1N 120.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 14/0000Z 26.2N 121.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 14/1200Z 27.5N 122.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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