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Hurricane Elida Forecast Discussion Number 14
2020-08-12 10:34:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Wed Aug 12 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 120834 TCDEP4 Hurricane Elida Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020 200 AM PDT Wed Aug 12 2020 Satellite imagery over the past several hours shows that the deep convection associated with Elida has been shrinking in coverage, while earlier microwave data revealed that the low-level center is on the southern edge of the convection. All of the available Dvorak data-T numbers have been on the decline tonight, and there remains a large spread in the Dvorak CI numbers, ranging from about 50-75 kt. The initial advisory intensity has been set to 65 kt, which is essentially a blend of the TAFB and SAB CI numbers along with the latest UW/CIMSS SATCON estimate. Elida is now moving over water temperatures below 24C, and the cyclone is heading towards even cooler waters. In addition, the cyclone's surrounding environment is expected to become increasingly drier and more stable over the next 24 h. These factors should cause Elida to rapidly weaken over the next day or so, with the cyclone expected to weaken to a tropical storm later today. After 24 h, vertical wind shear is forecast to increase, which should help to dissipate any remaining deep convection associated with Elida around that time. The latest NHC intensity forecast is very close to the various consensus aids through the period of rapid weakening, and is similar to the previous forecast. Elida is now moving west-northwestward at about 11 kt. This general motion is expected to continue through today, as the cyclone moves around the southwestern portion of a mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern United States. By tonight, the western portion of the ridge is forecast to weaken, which should allow Elida to turn northwestward with some additional slowing of its forward speed. This new motion should continue until the system becomes a remnant low. The latest NHC forecast is little changed from the previous and is near the well-clustered track guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 23.0N 117.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 23.7N 119.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 24.8N 120.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 25.9N 121.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 14/0600Z 27.2N 122.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 14/1800Z 28.5N 123.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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