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Hurricane Elida Forecast Discussion Number 9
2020-08-11 04:40:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Mon Aug 10 2020 346 WTPZ44 KNHC 110240 TCDEP4 Hurricane Elida Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020 900 PM MDT Mon Aug 10 2020 The last few visible images before sunset showed that while Elida had developed a faint eye, recent microwave data suggest the eyewall is open on the north and northwest sides. Nonetheless, the system is still on a strengthening trend, and the latest wind speed is set to 75 kt, close to the latest TAFB/SAB intensity estimates. Elida continues moving west-northwestward at 12 kt. A mid-level ridge located over northern Mexico and the southwestern U.S. should steer the hurricane west-northwestward at about the same forward speed for another couple of days. The biggest change to report is that most of the guidance are showing this motion continuing (instead of a westward turn) or even a more poleward trend in a few days due to a mid-latitude trough. It is uncertain how vertically deep Elida will be at that point, but there is even a low-level weakness in the model fields, suggesting that a shallower Elida would still feel that trough. Consequentially, the new NHC official forecast is shifted roughly 90 n mi to the north by day 4, with continuity preventing a larger change. The forecast is still on the southern end of the guidance envelope, so further northward adjustments could still be required overnight. The hurricane has less than a day to further intensify before it then moves over cooler waters, which should start to weaken Elida. In a couple of days, a faster weakening is shown than the last advisory since the cyclone is more likely to cross over cooler waters more quickly than previously anticipated due to the northward track change, along with additional shear. Likewise, the post-tropical timing is also accelerated to day 3, which is consistent with the latest GFS/ECMWF simulated satellite data. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 20.1N 112.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 20.9N 113.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 12/0000Z 21.9N 116.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 12/1200Z 22.9N 118.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 13/0000Z 23.7N 120.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 13/1200Z 24.3N 121.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 14/0000Z 25.0N 122.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/0000Z 26.0N 125.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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