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Hurricane Enrique Forecast Discussion Number 5
2021-06-26 10:55:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021 666 WTPZ45 KNHC 260855 TCDEP5 Hurricane Enrique Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 400 AM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021 The cloud pattern of Enrique has continued to become better organized since the last advisory, with a well-defined central dense overcast and a small, but persistent, area of cloud tops colder than -80C that may be the top of an eyewall. Satellite intensity estimates include subjective Dvorak estimates of 55 kt from TAFB and SAB and an objective estimate of 65 kt from the CIMSS ADT. The initial intensity is increased to 65 kt based mainly on the latter estimate. Although the cyclone continues to intensify, cirrus cloud motions to the west of the center suggest some shear is occurring. The initial motion is 290/7. A mid-level ridge to the north of the storm is forecast to weaken over the next day or so which should cause Enrique to slow down and bend northwestward between 24-60 h. After that time, the ridge is expected to re-strengthen, causing the tropical cyclone to turn west-northwestward once again. The track guidance has shifted a little to the right since the last advisory during the first 72 h, and the GFS model continues to show a sharper northward turn that would bring the center closer to the coast of Mexico. The new forecast track is also shifted a little to the right during the first 72 h, but it lies west of the various consensus models. Any subsequent adjustment of the forecast track to the right/east could require a hurricane watch for portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico later today. Enrique is forecast to remain within an environment of low vertical wind shear and over warm sea surface temperatures during the next 24 to 36 hours. Therefore, continued steady to rapid strengthening is likely as indicated by the Rapid Intensification Indices of the SHIPS model. The new intensity forecast calls for a peak intensity of 95 kt at 36 h, which is near the high end of the intensity guidance. After 36 h, increasing shear and decreasing sea surface temperatures along the forecast track should cause a steady weakening. Key Messages: 1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains across a portion of southwestern Mexico during the next couple days, which would likely cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected across portions of southwestern Mexico today and this weekend, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for a portion of that area. 3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 16.7N 104.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 16.9N 105.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 17.5N 106.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 18.5N 106.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 28/0600Z 19.5N 107.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 28/1800Z 20.2N 107.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 29/0600Z 20.7N 108.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 30/0600Z 21.5N 109.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 01/0600Z 22.5N 111.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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