je.st
news
Hurricane Enrique Forecast Discussion Number 7
2021-06-26 22:58:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 262058 TCDEP5 Hurricane Enrique Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 400 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021 Enrique no longer appears to be intensifying this afternoon. The hurricane's structure has degraded somewhat, with little evidence of an eye on visible satellite imagery, and additional hints that dry air, seen earlier on microwave imagery, may have disrupted the inner core structure of the cyclone. Stable stratocumulus clouds can also be seen to the northwest of Enrique's core streaming underneath the cirrus canopy on the western side. Subjective Dvorak satellite estimates this afternoon were both T4.5/75 kt from TAFB and SAB. The latest objective UW-CIMSS ADT estimate was a tad lower at T4.2/70 kt. A blend of these estimates still supports an estimated intensity of 75 kt for this advisory. Smoothing out a short-term wobble more westward, the estimated motion is still on a west-northwest heading at 300/06 kt. As discussed previously, Enrique is expected to make a turn to the northwest this evening as the mid-level ridge poleward of the storm weakens, due to a strong shortwave trough digging into the Four Corners region of the southwestern US. The latest track guidance is more or less similar to the previous forecast cycle, but there are some notable eastern outliers, including the most recent GFS and HWRF runs. The latest NHC track forecast remains close to the TVCE consensus and is quite similar to the previous track forecast for the first 48 hours. Thereafter, the track guidance has been shifting a bit more rightward, and the NHC track forecast was shifted in that direction, though not as far as the TVCE consensus at the end of the forecast period. The small size of the 64-kt wind radii forecast with Enrique should keep the highest winds offshore, but any additional eastward track adjustments could require hurricane watches for portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico tonight or tomorrow. Downslope dry-air entrainment appears to be the cause of the recent disruption in Enrique's satellite structure, primarily in its eastern quadrant. In addition, the latest GFS-SHIPS guidance indicates that moderate easterly shear has increased a little earlier than expected over the cyclone. Given these negative factors, the latest intensity forecast has been sharply decreased from the previous one over the first 24 h, with only a little additional intensification expected. Thereafter, the slow forward motion of the storm upwelling cooler waters, and possible additional dry downslope flow from the higher Mexican terrain is expected to lead to gradual weakening starting early next week. In the latter portion of the forecast, decreasing sea-surface temperatures below 26 C will hasten the weakening process, with the storm degenerating into a remnant low near the tip of Baja California by the end of the forecast. Key Messages: 1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains across a portion of southwestern Mexico during the next couple days, which would likely cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected across portions of southwestern Mexico today and this weekend, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for a portion of that area. 3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 17.3N 105.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 17.9N 105.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 19.0N 106.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 28/0600Z 19.9N 106.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 28/1800Z 20.4N 107.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 29/0600Z 21.1N 108.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 29/1800Z 21.8N 108.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 30/1800Z 22.9N 110.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 01/1800Z 23.6N 110.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Papin/Stewart
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
hurricane
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Latest from this category |
All news |
||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||