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Hurricane Erick Forecast Discussion Number 11
2019-07-30 04:59:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM HST Mon Jul 29 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 300258 CCA TCDEP1 Hurricane Erick Discussion Number 11...corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062019 500 PM HST Mon Jul 29 2019 Corrected Central Pacific Hurricane Center web link Erick has finally become a hurricane. Microwave and visible data indicate that a ragged eye is present, and deep convection has been increasing near the center. All of the satellite agencies agree on an initial intensity of 65 kt, so that will be the advisory wind speed. The environment is expected to generally be conducive for continued intensification during the next 36-48 hours, and Erick could still attain major hurricane status during that time. Thereafter, a significant increase in shear is predicted by almost all of the guidance. This is a strong signal for rapid weakening in the 2-3 day time frame, and the official forecast follows suit, showing a more rapid weakening than the previous advisory. The hurricane has been moving faster to the west recently, but a longer-term motion is 280/16. The mid-level ridge to the north is still forecast to weaken tomorrow but stay in place, causing a slower west-northwestward track. Track guidance is more divergent tonight with the ECMWF and its ensemble considerably faster than the rest of the models. It is notable, however, that the models have been doing a rather poor job on the track as they all have been biased too slow and poleward during the past couple of days. Thus, the new forecast has been shifted to the southwest of the previous one, on the western side of the model consensus, but is still behind the ECMWF guidance for forecast continuity. This is the last NHC advisory on Erick since the hurricane is crossing 140W and moving into the central Pacific basin. Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center beginning at 11 PM HST, under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP1, WMO header WTPA31 PHFO, and on the web at http://hurricanes.gov/cphc. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 12.7N 140.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 13.1N 142.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 31/0000Z 13.9N 144.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 31/1200Z 14.6N 146.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 01/0000Z 15.2N 148.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 02/0000Z 16.0N 153.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 03/0000Z 16.7N 157.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 04/0000Z 17.7N 161.4W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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