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Hurricane Felicia Forecast Discussion Number 21
2021-07-19 10:39:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM HST Sun Jul 18 2021 956 WTPZ41 KNHC 190839 TCDEP1 Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 1100 PM HST Sun Jul 18 2021 Felicia continues to rapidly weaken tonight. The eye is no longer visible in satellite imagery, and the low-level center is embedded underneath a small central dense overcast. Recent SSMIS and GMI microwave imagery reveal the hurricane no longer has a well-defined eyewall, with a lack of deep convection noted in the southern portion of the compact circulation. A blend of the objective UW-CIMSS ADT and subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB supports lowering the initial intensity to 85 kt with this advisory. Steady to rapid weakening is expected to continue over the next couple of days as Felicia moves over decreasing SSTs and into an environment with increasing vertical wind shear. The combination of this shear and entrainment of drier mid-level air into the inner core of Felicia should disrupt the small cyclone's ability to maintain its convective organization. The official NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and shows steady weakening that generally follows the IVCN consensus aid. GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery indicate that Felicia could lose all deep, organized convection as early as Wednesday, when the northwesterly shear strengthens to 30-40 kt over the cyclone. Recent scatterometer and microwave data indicate Felicia has begun turning more westward, and its initial motion is estimated to be 280/10 kt. A westward to west-southwestward motion is forecast during the next several days as the cyclone moves around a subtropical ridge that extends across the central Pacific. The track guidance remains tightly clustered and the official NHC track forecast is largely unchanged, with only a slight southward adjustment that follows the latest multi-model consensus. Based on this forecast, Felicia is expected to cross over into the central Pacific basin on Tuesday night. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 16.4N 131.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 16.3N 132.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 20/0600Z 16.2N 134.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 20/1800Z 15.8N 137.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 21/0600Z 15.3N 140.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 21/1800Z 14.9N 143.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 22/0600Z 14.4N 146.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 23/0600Z 14.0N 151.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 24/0600Z 13.5N 157.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch
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