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Hurricane Felicia Forecast Discussion Number 22
2021-07-19 16:35:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 AM HST Mon Jul 19 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 191435 TCDEP1 Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 500 AM HST Mon Jul 19 2021 Felicia continues to rapidly weaken as it heads toward the Central Pacific. Satellite images show a shrinking area of deep convection that is now generally confined to the northeast quadrant of the circulation. The Dvorak classifications continue to fall, and a blend of the latest estimates from TAFB, SAB, and CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin support lowering the initial intensity to 70 kt, and even that seems generous. The weakening and very compact storm is surrounded by dry mid-level air. This stable environment, cool 25 C SSTs, and increasing wind shear should cause the rapid weakening trend to continue. Felicia is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm later today and a remnant low in a few days when it expected to be in an environment of about 40 kt of northwesterly shear and very dry air, which will likely cause all of the deep convection to dissipate. The NHC intensity forecast is lower than the previous one, and in line with the majority of the latest guidance. Felicia is moving westward at about 10 kt. A slightly faster westward to west-southwestward motion is expected during the next several days as Felicia, or its remnants, move in the flow on the south side of a low- to mid-level high to its north. The NHC track forecast is just a tad south of the previous one and lies close to the various consensus aids. Based on the current forecast, the weakening system is expected to cross into the Central Pacific basin by tomorrow night. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 16.3N 132.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 16.2N 134.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 16.0N 136.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 15.5N 139.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 14.9N 142.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 22/0000Z 14.5N 144.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 22/1200Z 14.0N 147.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 23/1200Z 13.6N 153.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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