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Hurricane GEORGETTE Forecast Discussion Number 10
2016-07-24 04:50:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SAT JUL 23 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 240249 TCDEP3 HURRICANE GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082016 800 PM PDT SAT JUL 23 2016 Georgette's convective structure improved this evening, as a band of showers and thunderstorms wrapped more than 360 degrees around the center. The intensity estimates spanned a wide range: 55 kt from SAB Dvorak, 58 kt from CIMSS AMSU, 65 kt from TAFB Dvorak, and 75 kt from CIMSS ADT. A blend of these gives 65 kt, making Georgette a hurricane. A 2227Z CIRA AMSU size analysis indicated that the tropical cyclone remained small with tropical-storm-force winds extending out only to 60 nm in the northern semicircle. Continued steady intensification is expected, but only for another day or so while Georgette traverses over warm SSTs, through moist unstable air, and experiences low tropospheric vertical shear. Starting on Monday, it is anticipated that the thermodynamics will no longer be conducive and gradual to steady weakening should occur. Around day four, the combination of cold SSTs and a dry stable atmosphere may lead to the system losing its deep convection and becoming a post-tropical cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast shows a slightly higher peak intensity in a day, then indicates a quicker demise. This forecast is based on a blend of the HWRF dynamical hurricane model and the LGEM statistical technique. Georgette is moving toward the west at about 8 kt, in the mid-level easterlies associated with the subtropical ridge to its north. An upper-level low swings around to the western periphery of Georgette and helps to induce a more northerly component of motion to the hurricane between 36 and 72 h. By day four, a decaying Georgette is steered back toward the west-northwest in the low-level trade winds. The NHC track forecast is nearly the same as that from the previous advisory and is based upon the TVCE multi-model consensus. Georgette is the fourth hurricane to form during the month of July in the eastern North Pacific basin. This ties a record for the month of July, last equaled back in 1992. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 14.2N 123.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 14.8N 124.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 15.8N 126.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 16.9N 127.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 17.7N 128.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 27/0000Z 19.0N 129.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 28/0000Z 20.5N 132.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 29/0000Z 21.5N 136.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Landsea
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