je.st
news
Hurricane GEORGETTE Forecast Discussion Number 12
2016-07-24 16:33:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SUN JUL 24 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 241432 TCDEP3 HURRICANE GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082016 800 AM PDT SUN JUL 24 2016 The coverage of cold convective tops has increased over the past few hours and a 0921Z GPM pass and 0935Z AMSR pass showed that the center of Georgette was near the middle of the CDO feature. Based on the improved convective organization, the initial intensity has been set to 75 kt, which is close to the latest Dvorak estimates from SAB and UW-CIMSS. The hurricane has an opportunity to strengthen a bit more in the short term before SSTs cool below 26C by 24 hours. After that time, slow weakening should begin and continue through the rest of the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast is close to SHIPS model at 12 h and near the LGEM thereafter. In about 4 days, Georgette should become a post- tropical cyclone over SSTs of 22-23C in a dry and stable environment. The initial motion estimate is 295/09 based on the latest geostationary and microwave fixes. A mid-level anticyclone centered north of Georgette will gradually weaken during the next 72 hours, which will cause the tropical cyclone to turn northwestward and slow down. By the end of the period, the shallow post-tropical Georgette should accelerate back toward the west-northwest in the low-level trade wind flow. The new NHC track is a little to the right of the previous one and is close to the latest TVCN consensus aid. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 15.1N 124.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 15.7N 125.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 16.6N 127.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 17.4N 127.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 26/1200Z 18.1N 128.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 27/1200Z 19.9N 130.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 28/1200Z 22.0N 133.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 29/1200Z 23.0N 138.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brennan
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
hurricane
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Latest from this category |
All news |
||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||