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Hurricane GEORGETTE Forecast Discussion Number 13
2016-07-24 22:35:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SUN JUL 24 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 242034 TCDEP3 HURRICANE GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082016 200 PM PDT SUN JUL 24 2016 Georgette has continued to strengthen today, with a cloudy eye now seen in visible imagery surrounded by a CDO with cloud tops of around -70C. The initial intensity is set to 90 kt based on the latest Dvorak estimates of T5.0 from TAFB and SAB. Georgette still has a chance to intensity further in the next 12 hours before SSTs cool below 26C along the track. After that time, slow weakening should begin, followed by a faster rate of decay by 36 hours as SSTs cool below 25C and the shear increases a bit. Georgette is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone in 3-4 days. The NHC intensity forecast is above all of the guidance through 24 hours and near or a little below the LGEM. The initial motion estimate is 300/09. The mid-level anticyclone centered north of Georgette will gradually weaken during the next 72 hours, which will cause the tropical cyclone to turn northwestward and slow down. Late in the period, a shallow post-tropical Georgette should accelerate back toward the west in the low-level trade wind flow. The new NHC track is again adjusted a little to the right of the previous one and is not far from the new TVCN multi-model consensus. The wind radii have been adjusted based on a pair of ASCAT passes around 1800 UTC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 15.7N 125.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 16.4N 126.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 17.2N 127.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 17.9N 128.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 26/1800Z 18.7N 128.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 27/1800Z 20.8N 131.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 28/1800Z 22.5N 135.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 29/1800Z 23.5N 141.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brennan
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