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Hurricane GEORGETTE Forecast Discussion Number 14
2016-07-25 04:50:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SUN JUL 24 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 250249 TCDEP3 HURRICANE GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082016 800 PM PDT SUN JUL 24 2016 Georgette has been rapidly intensifying. The eye of the hurricane has become much more distinct in satellite images since the previous advisory, and the deep convection is fairly symmetric around the center. The latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB, SAB, and CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin support raising the initial intensity to 115 kt, making Georgette a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir- Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. This is an impressive 50-kt intensity increase in the past 24 hours. Even though Georgette is a major hurricane, scatterometer data from a few hours ago indicated that its wind field is fairly compact. Georgette has been taking advantage of favorable environmental conditions of very low shear and sufficiently warm waters of about 27 deg C during its rapid intensification phase. Although the shear is expected to remain light during the next few days, Georgette is forecast to track over progressively cooler SSTs and it should cross the 26 deg C isotherm in about 12 hours. Therefore, some additional strengthening is possible overnight, but a steady weakening trend should commence on Monday. Georgette is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone in 3 to 4 days when it is expected to be embedded in a dry air mass and located over SSTs of 22-23 deg C. The hurricane is moving northwestward at about 10 kt toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge caused by an upper-level low. This general heading with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. After that time, a faster motion toward the west-northwest and then west is forecast when the weakening system becomes steered by the low-level trade wind flow. The NHC track forecast is not too different from the previous one, and lies close to the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 16.3N 126.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 17.1N 126.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 17.8N 127.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 18.5N 128.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 27/0000Z 19.3N 129.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 28/0000Z 21.3N 132.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 29/0000Z 22.8N 137.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 30/0000Z 23.5N 143.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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