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Hurricane GEORGETTE Forecast Discussion Number 15
2016-07-25 10:34:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT MON JUL 25 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 250834 TCDEP3 HURRICANE GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082016 200 AM PDT MON JUL 25 2016 Georgette is maintaining its organization. The cyclone exhibits an annular appearance, with a nearly symmetric CDO and essentially no banding features. A 0245 UTC SSMI/S hints at a possible eyewall replacement, though it's not clear at what stage it has progressed. Dvorak satellite classifications are a unanimous T6.0 at 0600 UTC, and on this basis, the intensity estimate is kept at 115 kt. The initial motion estimate is 315/09. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north and east of Georgette would tend to steer it westward or west-northwestward during the next few days. However, an upper- low ahead of it should continue to impart a more northwesterly motion, though at a much reduced forward speed. After 72 hours, Georgette is forecast to become a much shallower cyclone, at which time the track should bend toward the west and accelerate in the low-level flow. The new track forecast is not much different than the previous one, except that it is slower beyond 72 hours and a little to the south, in agreement with the consensus track guidance. The intensity forecast seems straightforward. Georgette's movement over a colder sea surface and into increasingly drier and more stable air mass should soon result in weakening. The caveat is that Georgette's annular structure could allow it to maintain more strength than forecast in the very short term. By 48 hours, however, the thermodynamics in the storm's environment should become hostile, and a more rapid weakening is expected to commence. The new NHC intensity forecast is somewhat lower than the previous one and is close to the multi-model consensus, except prior to 48 hours when the storm's annular characteristics have been taken into account. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 16.9N 126.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 17.6N 127.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 18.2N 128.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 26/1800Z 18.8N 128.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 27/0600Z 19.6N 130.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 28/0600Z 21.4N 133.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 29/0600Z 22.3N 138.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 30/0600Z 22.4N 143.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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