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Hurricane GEORGETTE Forecast Discussion Number 16
2016-07-25 16:36:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT MON JUL 25 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 251436 TCDEP3 HURRICANE GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082016 800 AM PDT MON JUL 25 2016 Georgette's satellite presentation has begun to degrade. The small eye has become filled in infrared imagery and the coverage and symmetry of cold tops in the CDO have decreased. The initial intensity of 105 kt is based on a blend of the latest Dvorak Final-T and CI numbers from TAFB and SAB. Quick weakening is expected as the cyclone will be moving over progressively cooler SSTs and into a drier and more stable airmass during the forecast period. Georgette should become a remnant low in about 3 days over SSTs of less than 23C and the remnant low is expected to dissipate in 4 to 5 days. The new NHC intensity forecast is lower than the previous one but is still a bit above the latest IVCN consensus aid. The initial motion estimate is 315/08. Georgette is being pulled northwestward by an upper-level low centered to its northwest, and this motion should continue for the next 48 hours or so. After that time, a shallow Georgette should accelerate westward in the low- level trade wind flow. The new NHC track forecast is shifted a bit to the right of the previous one and is close to the latest TVCN consensus aid. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 17.5N 127.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 18.0N 127.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 18.7N 128.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 19.4N 129.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 20.3N 130.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 28/1200Z 21.9N 134.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 29/1200Z 22.5N 139.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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