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Hurricane GEORGETTE Forecast Discussion Number 17
2016-07-25 22:32:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT MON JUL 25 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 252032 TCDEP3 HURRICANE GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082016 200 PM PDT MON JUL 25 2016 The eye is no longer seen in infrared imagery, but Georgette still has a small CDO with tops colder than -70C. The initial intensity is set to 95 kt based on a blend of the decreasing Dvorak Final-T and CI numbers from both TAFB and SAB. Rapid weakening is expected, with Georgette now moving over SSTs of around 25C and heading for even cooler waters. The NHC forecast follows the downward trend in the guidance this cycle and is close to the LGEM. Georgette should become post-tropical by 3 days and dissipate by day 4, although I wouldn't be surprised if both of these occurred sooner. The initial motion estimate remains 315/08, as Georgette continues to be steered northwestward by an upper-level low sliding by to the north. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged, as Georgette should continue northwestward until about 36 hours and then gradually accelerate westward in the low-level flow as a shallow system. The new NHC track forecast is a little faster than the previous one and is close to the latest multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 18.0N 127.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 18.4N 128.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 19.2N 129.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 20.0N 129.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 27/1800Z 20.9N 131.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 28/1800Z 22.5N 136.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 29/1800Z 22.5N 141.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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