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Hurricane GEORGETTE Forecast Discussion Number 18
2016-07-26 04:32:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT MON JUL 25 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 260232 TCDEP3 HURRICANE GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082016 800 PM PDT MON JUL 25 2016 Georgette has been on a steady weakening trend today. Although the eye of the hurricane is still apparent in visible images, it is much less distinct than it was earlier today. In addition, the convective pattern has become more ragged in appearance and is stretched from north to south. The initial wind speed is lowered to 85 kt, in agreement with a blend of the Final T- and CI-numbers from TAFB, SAB, and automated values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin. Georgette is a small cyclone, and based on earlier scatterometer data, the tropical-storm-force winds extend only 40 n mi from the center. The hurricane is over SSTs of about 25 deg C, and it is headed for even cooler waters during the next few days. These unfavorable oceanic conditions combined with a drier air mass and an increase in southeasterly shear should cause additional steady or even rapid weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is in best agreement with the SHIPS guidance and now calls for Georgette to become a remnant low in 48 hours and dissipate by day 4. Satellite fixes indicate that Georgette has slowed down, as predicted, and the latest initial motion estimate is 310/6 kt. A continued slow northwestward motion is expected during the next day or so while the system moves toward an upper-level low to its northwest. After that time, the shallow cyclone is expected to turn toward the west-northwest and accelerate in the low-level trade wind flow. The NHC track forecast is a little slower than the previous one to come in better agreement with the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 18.2N 128.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 18.6N 128.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 19.3N 129.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 27/1200Z 20.3N 130.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 28/0000Z 21.1N 132.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 29/0000Z 22.4N 136.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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