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Hurricane Grace Forecast Discussion Number 32
2021-08-21 10:58:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Aug 21 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 210858 TCDAT2 Hurricane Grace Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 400 AM CDT Sat Aug 21 2021 Hurricane Grace made landfall around 0600 UTC this morning near Tecolutla, Mexico with estimated maximum sustained winds of 110 kt. The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters investigated the hurricane earlier tonight and found winds supporting an intensity of 105 kt. After the aircraft left the cyclone, the satellite appearance continued to improve with the eye clearing and becoming better-defined. Therefore, it is assumed that some additional strengthening occurred before landfall. Since that time, the inner-core of Grace has moved inland over eastern Mexico and recent radar and satellite images show a pronounced degradation of the eye and eyewall. Based on this trend, the initial advisory intensity has been lowered to 95 kt. Grace is moving a little south of west, or 260/12 kt. A westward motion is forecast to continue through tonight until the cyclone dissipates. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one and is in line with the track consensus guidance. The hurricane's forecast motion will take it over the mountainous terrain of interior Mexico today into tonight. Therefore, rapid weakening is expected and the latest NHC intensity forecast for Grace is near the Decay SHIPS guidance. By tonight, the low-level circulation is expected to dissipate over the higher terrain. As mentioned in previous advisories, the mid-level vortex of Grace is forecast to survive the westward passage over Mexico and reach the eastern Pacific late this weekend where a new tropical cyclone is expected to form. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are likely to continue along portions of the coast of eastern mainland Mexico for the next few hours within the Hurricane Warning area from Puerto Veracruz northward to Cabo Rojo. 2. Through the weekend, heavy rainfall across Veracruz, Puebla, Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, Queretaro, and eastern San Luis Potosi will lead to significant flash and urban flooding, along with the likelihood of mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 20.5N 97.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 21/1800Z 20.2N 99.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 24H 22/0600Z 20.1N 101.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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