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Hurricane HENRIETTE Forecast Discussion Number 13
2013-08-06 16:39:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE AUG 06 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 061439 TCDEP3 HURRICANE HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082013 800 AM PDT TUE AUG 06 2013 HENRIETTE HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES HAVE REVEALED A WELL-DEFINED EYE...WHICH HAS ALSO BEEN SEEN INTERMITTENTLY IN NIGHT TIME VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS MORNING. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM SAB...77 KT FROM TAFB...AND 82 KT FROM UW/CIMSS ADT. BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 70 KT. THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN MOVING ON A MOTION BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. SMOOTHING THROUGH THE WOBBLES...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 305/9 KT. HENRIETTE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL HEADING AND SPEED FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BETWEEN 135W AND 140W LONGITUDE. IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE WHICH WILL CAUSE HENRIETTE TO TURN WESTWARD...AND POSSIBLY WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 72 HOURS...EXCEPT FOR SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE CYCLONE. LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE SPREAD BECOMES LARGER WITH THE MODELS THAT WEAKEN HENRIETTE SOONER SHOWING A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK. THE NHC FORECAST LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...HENRIETTE SHOULD REMAIN OVER WARMER WATERS AND IN A MOIST ATMOSPHERE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING...AND THE NHC INTENSITY FORECASTS CALLS FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 80 KT IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...HENRIETTE WILL BE MOVING OVER SSTS OF 25 TO 26 DEGREES CELSIUS AND INTO A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 14.2N 131.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 15.1N 132.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 16.0N 134.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 16.9N 136.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 17.3N 138.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 09/1200Z 17.3N 142.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 10/1200Z 16.8N 146.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 11/1200Z 16.5N 151.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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