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Hurricane HENRIETTE Forecast Discussion Number 14
2013-08-06 22:32:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT TUE AUG 06 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 062032 TCDEP3 HURRICANE HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082013 200 PM PDT TUE AUG 06 2013 RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE ORGANIZATION OF THE SMALL HURRICANE HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE WITH A SMALL EYE BECOMING EVIDENT. A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS OR SO HAVE CLEARLY SHOWN A CONTRACTING EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 80 KT...WHICH IS BETWEEN THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 77 KT AND 85 KT...RESPECTIVELY. HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...SLIGHTLY COOLER SSTS AND A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS SHOULD CAUSE A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND TO BEGIN. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE GUIDANCE DURING THE FIRST 12 TO 24 HOURS... THEN LIES BETWEEN THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND THE SHIPS MODEL THERAFTER. HENRIETTE HAS BEEN MOVING ON A STEADY NORTHWESTWARD HEADING AT ABOUT 9 KT TODAY. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO...THEN TURN WESTWARD AS A RIDGE RE-BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS AGAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 TO 72 HOURS...EXCEPT FOR SOME FORWARD SPEED DIFFERENCES. THE NHC TRACK DURING THIS TIME SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE SLOWER GFS AND THE FASTER ECMWF AND LIES NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS. AS HENRIETTE WEAKENS AND BECOMES A MORE SHALLOW CYCLONE LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...IT IS LIKELY TO TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADEWIND FLOW. THE TRACK GUIDANCE AT DAYS 4 AND 5 SHIFTED SOUTHWARD THIS CYCLE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION...BUT IT REMAINS ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AT THOSE TIMES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 14.7N 132.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 15.5N 133.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 16.4N 135.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 17.0N 137.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 17.3N 139.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 09/1800Z 16.8N 143.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 10/1800Z 16.0N 147.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 11/1800Z 15.5N 152.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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