je.st
news
Hurricane HENRIETTE Forecast Discussion Number 15
2013-08-07 04:35:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT TUE AUG 06 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 070235 TCDEP3 HURRICANE HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082013 800 PM PDT TUE AUG 06 2013 WHILE THE EYE IS NO LONGER APPARENT IN GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY...THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION AND A CONVECTIVE BAND IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 80 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND ADT ESTIMATES. SOME LIMITED STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS WEAKENING AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER SSTS AND INTO A DRIER AND MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS THROUGH 36 HOURS AND FOLLOWS THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL AFTER THAT TIME. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/09...AS HENRIETTE IS CURRENTLY SITUATED ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND A MOTION TO THE SOUTH OF DUE WEST IS EXPECTED AS HENRIETTE WEAKENS AND IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE LATEST TVCE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS LATE IN THE PERIOD. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 15.1N 133.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 15.8N 134.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 16.6N 136.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 17.0N 137.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 17.1N 139.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 10/0000Z 16.3N 143.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 11/0000Z 15.5N 148.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 12/0000Z 15.0N 153.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
hurricane
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Latest from this category |
All news |
||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||