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Hurricane HENRIETTE Forecast Discussion Number 16
2013-08-07 10:36:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT WED AUG 07 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 070836 TCDEP3 HURRICANE HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082013 200 AM PDT WED AUG 07 2013 HENRIETTE IS NOT QUITE AS ORGANIZED AS IT WAS 6-12 HOURS AGO. THERE HAVE NOT BEEN ANY RECENT INDICATIONS OF AN EYE IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND MICROWAVE DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE HURRICANE COULD BE EXPERIENCING A LITTLE BIT OF SHEAR. DVORAK FINAL T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED SOME...AND CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T4.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB AND T4.4 FROM THE ADT. BASED ON THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE AND DVORAK ESTIMATES...THE INTENSITY IS BEING LOWERED TO 75 KT. THE RECENT WEAKENING COULD BE SHORT LIVED...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR HENRIETTE TO AT LEAST MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY FOR 24 HOURS OR SO. MORE PRONOUNCED WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE WITHIN 36 HOURS AS HENRIETTE MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND INGESTS MORE STABLE AIR. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS DURING THAT TIME. AFTER 36 HOURS...THE WEAKENING RATE MOST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS...HWRF...AND GFDL MODELS. HENRIETTE IS MAINTAINING A MOTION OF 300/9 KT AS IT HEADS TOWARD A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH NORTHEAST OF HAWAII. A RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD IN THE COMING DAYS...AND HENRIETTE SHOULD ALSO BECOME STEERED BY LOWER- LEVEL RIDGING AS IT WEAKENS. THEREFORE...A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS ANTICIPATED IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. A NOTEWORTHY OUTLIER AMONG THE TRACK MODELS IS THE ECMWF...WHICH IS A BIT FASTER THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE. FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SPEEDS SIMILAR TO THE MAJORITY OF THE OTHER MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 15.6N 133.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 16.3N 135.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 17.0N 137.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 17.3N 139.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 17.1N 141.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 10/0600Z 16.3N 145.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 11/0600Z 15.5N 150.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 12/0600Z 14.5N 156.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BERG
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