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Hurricane HENRIETTE Forecast Discussion Number 17
2013-08-07 16:34:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT WED AUG 07 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 071434 TCDEP3 HURRICANE HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082013 800 AM PDT WED AUG 07 2013 THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE CENTER IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION AND THE OUTFLOW REMAINS WELL ESTABLISHED. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS. IN ABOUT 12 TO 24 HOURS...HENRIETTE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTERACT WITH MORE STABLE AIR. ON THIS BASIS...THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO WITH A GRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER. THIS FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. HENRIETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BEYOND 36 HOURS...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE...FORCING HENRIETTE TO MOVE ON MORE WESTERLY TO A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK. MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TURN. THIS FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THAT HAS BEEN PERFORMING QUITE WELL SO FAR THIS SEASON. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 16.2N 134.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 16.8N 136.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 17.5N 138.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 17.5N 140.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 17.2N 142.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 10/1200Z 16.0N 146.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 11/1200Z 15.0N 152.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 12/1200Z 13.5N 159.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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