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Hurricane HENRIETTE Forecast Discussion Number 18
2013-08-07 22:31:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT WED AUG 07 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 072031 TCDEP3 HURRICANE HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082013 200 PM PDT WED AUG 07 2013 THE CLOUD PATTERN OF HENRIETTE HAS CHANGED A LITTLE DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. AN EYE IS TRYING TO APPEAR IN THE MIDDLE OF THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST...WHILE AN APPARENT DRY SLOT IS WRAPPING BETWEEN THE CDO AND THE OUTER BANDING IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 77 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THERE WAS A 70 KT AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM CIMSS A FEW HOURS AGO. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 75 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/10. THE HURRICANE IS CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOWEVER...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST TO RIDGE TO BUILD TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE AFTER 24-36 HOURS. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND THE GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE OLD TRACK AND LIES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER COLDER WATERS AND INTO SOMEWHAT STRONGER WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DURING THE NEXT 12-48 HOURS. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN...WITH THE GFS...THE UKMET...AND THE CANADIAN MODELS FORECASTING THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL PART OF THE CIRCULATION TO DISSIPATE DURING THIS TIME. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLIGHTLY FASTER WEAKENING THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AFTER 48 HOURS...THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DECREASED SHEAR. HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CALLS FOR CONTINUED WEAKENING AFTER 48 HOURS...APPARENTLY DUE TO INCREASED DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. THE LATTER PART OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MODEL TREND...BUT WITH A SLOWER WEAKENING RATE THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 16.7N 135.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 17.3N 137.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 17.7N 138.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 17.6N 140.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 17.1N 142.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 10/1800Z 16.0N 148.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 11/1800Z 14.5N 154.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 12/1800Z 13.0N 160.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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