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Hurricane HENRIETTE Forecast Discussion Number 19
2013-08-08 04:35:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT WED AUG 07 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 080235 TCDEP3 HURRICANE HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082013 800 PM PDT WED AUG 07 2013 THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF HENRIETTE HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. WHILE AN EYE IS NOT SEEN IN GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY...A 2134Z AMSR-2 PASS FROM THE GCOM-W1 SATELLITE SHOWED A SMALL MID- LEVEL EYE. HOWEVER...THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATED AN EASTWARD TILT OF THE CIRCULATION WITH HEIGHT CONSISTENT WITH MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR INDICATED BY UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 75 KT BASED ON THE LATEST DVORAK CI-NUMBERS OF 4.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB. STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN SOON AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME...HENRIETTE WILL BE MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS...BUT IN A DRIER ATMOSPHERE. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD RESULT IN SLOW WEAKENING TO REMNANT LOW STATUS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE NHC FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE DECAY SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/09. A NARROW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE NORTH OF HENRIETTE WILL RESULT IN A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST- SOUTHWEST. THIS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT HAS BEEN SHIFTED A BIT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH 72 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION AND AN ADJUSTMENT TOWARD THE LATEST TVCE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 17.0N 136.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 17.4N 138.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 17.4N 139.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 17.2N 141.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 16.7N 144.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 11/0000Z 15.5N 149.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 12/0000Z 14.0N 156.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 13/0000Z 13.0N 162.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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